Wednesday 30 December 2015

Interest-Free Banking: Reaching out to a wider base

RBI Committee report of Mr Deepak Mohanty - RBI Committee on Medium term Path for Financial Inclusion headed by Shr. Deepak Mohanty has released its report and recommendations on 28-12-2015 to increase financial inclusion in India.

Chapter 5 of the report titledInterest-Free Banking: Reaching out to a wider base’ focuses on the importance of Interest free banking system in depth and recommends Interest Free Windows in existing conventional banks. The report highlights the central concept in interest-free banking and finance is justice.

Recommendation 5.1
The Committee recommends that commercial banks in India may be enabled to open specialised interest-free windows with simple products like demand deposits, agency and participation securities on their liability side and to offer products based on cost-plus financing and deferred payment, deferred delivery contracts on the asset side.


RBI now seeks public comments and opinions in this regard. Kindly see the following note from the Press Release of RBI regarding submitting comments on the report:

"The Reserve Bank of India has today placed on its website, the Report of the Committee on Medium-term Path on Financial Inclusion (Chairman: Shri Deepak Mohanty). Comments may please be emailed or sent by post to the Principal Chief General Manager, Reserve Bank of India, Financial Inclusion and Development Department, 10th Floor, Central Office Building, Shahid Bhagat Singh Marg, Mumbai-400001 by January 29, 2016."



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Tuesday 29 December 2015

Market Brief (28th Dec 2015)


Absence of any major triggers held the markets in a range with substantially low volumes, to end the day on flat note, though the week finished on positive up by two percent.  Although the markets expressed in terms on Nifty gave a flat close, but lot of buying was witnessed in selected mid and small cap companies and it appears it will continue for some more time.  The market for the Next week is crucial, from the point of view that it is headed towards a important event like the derivative settlement, Year end 2015 close, crude struggling to get bottomed out and jittery global equity markets. It further needs to be seen how the corporate results are unfolded next month, with the current valuation and lower expectation any positive surprise for the markets will see a sharp upward spike, and on the other hand since the undertone is bearish, further bad news would create a panic situation in the markets. Investors need to watch this development closely before taking a call on the markets.

Technically too markets are crucially poised, A trade and a close below 7600 this time see a sharp downside and a capitulation period for the markets, however if the nifty manages to keep its head up above 8000 would than test 8200, its only if the nifty closes and stays above 8200 will bottom out this markets or its vulnerable for a deep fall. The first range to watch on the nifty is 7600 and 8000 and further 7800 to 8200.

The year 2016 will be stock pickers markets and if one spots the right stock, money is still there in abundance and bad selection would jeopardize ones portfolio.



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Market Brief (21st Dec 2015)


Increase in the US interest rates buy FED, announcement of Finance mister of lower GDP expectation, non clearance of GST in the parliament and some profit taking by short term investor on the weekend were some of the reasons for Nifty closing over a percent lower on Friday, however, the week ended on positive note giving some glimpse of hope for the markets. With few days remaining for the winter session of parliament and some political upheaval, it needs to see how it plans out.  Clearance of some reform bills and stability in global markets and Crude prices will play a key role going forward. 

Technically too, market is critically poised, 7700 on the nifty on close basis is very significant. If nifty closes below these levels and than a breach of 7540 will certainly see 7000 to 7200 coming swiftly. However if 777 is held than Nifty may stage pull back rally to 7900 to 8000 and a close above 8000 on the nifty, the short term trend will look up. From an intermediate term (medium term) 8200 on the nifty is crucial and unless nifty closes above 8200 and stays there the medium term would continue to remain down. Short term range for the Nifty is between 7700 and 8000.

As suggested earlier through our newsletters, investors should have lot of restrain and patience. Be very selective in your approach and avoid stocks of the company that are delivering poor corporate results. Rather buy stocks of well managed, low leveraged and growth company stocks, despite if one has to pay higher prices.



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Market Brief (14th Dec 2015)


Falling crude prices, stalemate in the parliament on crucial reform bills, weak international markets, geo-political fears, stagnant economic growth, weakening rupee and FII selling were some the reasons for market collapse for day and week basis.  Markets in an intermediate term are in firm hands of bears and until things are resolved it will continue to declines. There is no respite whatsoever at the moment. As mentioned earlier unless some of these issues are not resolved it will be difficult for the markets to progress and best it may remain in a range.

Technically the lows registered in September at 7540 on the nifty is vital support and if breached on close basis than certainly markets will see correction continuing till at least 7250 the Fifty per cent retracement from the low 6000 registered last year  and if this level of 7250 odd is held than a sharp bounce is not ruled out. On the higher side multiple resistance right from 8000 to 8300 will cap the markets going higher and unless the markets fundamentals and internals improves a range bound trade at best can be expected from the markets.

Although markets are in a correction mode offers a great buying opportunities, one can selectively buy in smaller quantity and gradually increase on further declines and more once the market have bottomed. At present none of the sector looks good, however selected stocks from Sectors like oil & gas, auto, consumer staple and discretionary, selected stocks from engineering and industrials one can look to buy on declines from a long term view.

‘Buy when others are pessimistic, however requires greatest fortitude and wisdom, but pays highest reward’.



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Sunday 6 December 2015

Market Brief (7th Dec 2015)


Stalement on GST and other reform bills, a very much expected hike in US interest rates, depreciating rupee, improved economy of US and geo-political fears were instrumental in FIIs pulling money from Indian markets. Hence, Indian market, being bearish in the intermediate trend, continued its down trend and gave negative close for the day and the week. Going forward, a lot depends on whether GST and other critical bills get cleared in this winter session of Parliament and until that happens, market will remain under pressure. Although, sharp fall in the oil prices is positive for the Indian economy, but at the same time the depreciation of Indian rupee negates the benefit of falling oil prices. A caveat here is that if oil price starts rising, it could be a big negative for the Indian markets.

In conclusion, with mixed news flows and non-clarity on many issues, the upside for the market will remain capped for some times until Union Budget. It further needs to be seen how corporate will do this quarter, though expectations are low. Positive surprises can lift the markets on higher levels. Where technical of the market go, 7700 on the Nifty is very important, and this is the last hope for the market, if 7700 is held than at best in the near term, market could remain in range between 7700 and 8000. A close below 7700 on nifty would witness a swift sell-off in the market and the Nifty would test its 2015 of 7540. On the higher side, multiple resistance area between 8000 and 8350 would keep the markets under check.

The broader markets though look vulnerable, but the selected midcaps and the small cap stocks are still doing well. Investors should weigh higher on mid and small cap companies. And in event of sharper declines, one can utilise for buying stocks since the long term view of the market is bullish.



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PRAGMATIC WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT. LTD.
Head Office:
102, 1st Floor, Topaz Society,
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