Market Weekly Report by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – AS SUGGESTED MARKETS TRADED NERVEOUSLY IN A RANGE, GOOD AND THE BAD NEWS POURED IN AND KEPT THE MARKETS ON THE EDGES, AND WITH SHORTER WEEEKEND, THE MARKETS MANAGED TO END THE WEEK ON POSITIVE NOTE, THOUGH THE DAY AND THE MONTH CLOSED LOWER.THUS CONFIRMING A NEAR TERM RANGE BOUND TRADE TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE, GOING FORWARD THE MONSOON FORCAST, 4^TH QUATER RESULTS , ECONOMIC POLICY REFORMS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS CUES  AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY ARE THE FACTORS CRITICAL TO MARKET,  HENCE ONE NEEDS TO SEE THE PROGRESS IN THEM CLOSELY.  UNLESS THIS IMPROVES MARKETS WILL AT BEST REMAIN IN A RANGE OR DRIFT DOWN ON ITS OWN WEIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THE LONG-TERM GROWTH IS INTACT.

Technical – MARKETS ARE IN A CRTICAL RANGE BETWEEN 10000 AND 10450 AT BEST ON THE HIGHER SIDE, TRADE AND A CLOSE BELOW 10000 THE NIFTY WOULD TEST 9800 AND THEN 9700 FROM WHERE, A SHARP BOUNCE IS EXPECTED. THE VOLITILITY HOWEVER SHALL CONTINUE FOR QUITE SOME TIME PERHAPS THE BETTER PART OF THE YEAR.

ON THE HIGHER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE RESITENCES THAT WILL DISALLOW THE MARKETS TO PROGRESS IN THE NEAR TERM UNLEES THE FUNDAMENTAL IMPROVES. 10250 TO 10450 IS A TOUGH RESISTANCE OR A SUPPLY AREA. THE TESTIMONY OF THIS IS THAT MOST OF THE TRADED STOCKS ARE IN A SHORT TERM TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND, HENCE IT IS VERY DIFFICUKT FR THE MARKETS TO TAKE OUT RESISTANCE, WE CAN CONVINEIENTLY CONCLUDE THAT THE MARKETS ARE IN A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND.

INVESTORS SHOULD EXIT FROM WEAK STOCKS IN RALLY AND HOLD ON TO BULLISH STOCKS PATIENTLY, MOREOVER A CASH LEVEL OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT SHOULD BE MANTAINED, UNLESS THE TREND GETS MORE VIVID.

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Sensex, Nifty turn weak and volatile on global trade war fears

The markets last week open lower and on the back of negative news flows both domestically and internationally triggered downside and finally ended the week on Friday on negative note, down almost 2 percent for the week. More downside in Indian equity market is not ruled out since the oil price firming up, some political uncertainty on fore and a trade war, a protection trade policy announced by US against China is expected to lead markets of more downside, although the domestic news flows in the US were good with one of the lowest unemployment rate and rise in interest rate thus giving hope for more demand , could lead to a recovery in Global markets but now needs to be seen how it unfolds, forthcoming March quarterly result will be looked upon closely and would further act as a trigger for the markets to take a directional course. Investor’s at this juncture should be wise enough to be at least 15 to 20 percent in cash to be deployed after stability emerges in the market.

Technical– Technically the markets look weak and sceptic, with poor internals. In the near-term markets are likely to see 9800 and followed by 9700 in the near term. The valuation will get attractive and buying will see a range bound trade between 9700 and 10300, the paramount resistance is placed at 10700 and a close beyond that markets will get bottomed out, however a close below 9600 the market will see swift downside for the Nifty to test 9100 to 9200. On the higher side a close above 10700 will see new high.

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PRAGMATIC WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT. LTD.
Head Office:
102, 1st Floor, Topaz Society,
Dr. Nair Road, Agripada, Mumbai Central (E), Mumbai 400011

Tel: +91-022-23001290
Whatsapp:+91 9022178683
E-mail: contact@pragmaticwealth.net

Bloodbath in stock markets

Market Brief – With mix news flows the markets remain volatile during the week and ended the week lower, although the Global markets did well but Indian markets were jittery due to some political upheaval with BJP losing all the Lok Sabha by polls and TDP Govt. Of Andhra Pradesh withdrew there support with NDA further breed uncertainty. Going forward Quarterly results of March, Monsoon forecast, Outcome of political uncertainty, Crude & Commodity prices and Global markets cues will all determine the market trend. Since uncertainty and volatility has gone up Investors are suggested to remain partly in cash say about at least 15% to 20%, to be deployed once the stability is back in the market, Nevertheless it appears that market during this year 2018 will continue to remain volatile, Assembly and General Election and implementation of reformed process will be instrumental for the markets. A cautious and stock specific approach should be the order of the day.    

Technical– Technically market looks weak and vulnerable for more fall, a trade and a close below 10000 would swiftly extend the correction initially to 9800 and then 9600. On the higher side 10500 – 10650 is a tough resistance area and unless the Nifty closes above 10650 it would remains under selling pressure, the Short term range for the market is 10140 (the low registered on Friday 16th March) and 10400 on the higher side and the broader range would be 10000 on the lower side and 10400 on higher side. Although the market look weak and vulnerable in Short and Medium Term, but the long Term Trend is still up. 

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