Market Update by Imtiaz Merchant for 29th July 2019

Markets quite as expected continued the downside journey to test 11200 from where it recovered a bit to close the day and the week off the lows at 11285. The fall in the markets was primarily due to slowdown in the economy, lack of policy initiative by the Govt. June quarter Corporate results being muted baring few companies, unabated rise in unemployment and uncertainty about agro output since many parts in India is suffering from unprecedented floods and some parts receiving scanty rains, global cues not been encouraging,  all this lead to major correction in the markets and it appears that on the back of uncertainty in economic fundamentals more downside in the market is not ruled out. These are tough times in the markets and that investor who wants to invest for long term should initiate some buying traders and short term investors may better stay away.

Technical–Technically market look weak and vulnerable to more falls, although a small throwback rally is not ruled out since the market is oversold in the near term, on the higher side there are multiple resistances that may keep the market under check between 11400 to 11700 at best, however a close below 11200 will see the nifty sliding down once again and may test 11100 to 10600 levels. In the initial range for the market is between 11200 and 11500 whereas the broader range is between 11000 and 11700.

Market Update for 22nd July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market gave a catastrophic close on Friday and broke its short term trend down, all this happened due to multiple reasons, poor corporate earnings, global cues were negative followed by no major policy changes by the government on economic front and Budget failed to enthuse the market. Going forward it appears that market will go down further to test initially 11100 on the Nifty and subsequently it can go down as low as 10600, this can be reversal point because of valuation and stocks will be available at cheap prices, however in the short run any rise in the market will be used by the investor to sell stocks, hence a prolonged corrective action is quite likely, it appears that market will have a U shape recovery and a protracted range bound trade is not ruled out. Investors should exercise caution and remain at least 20% to 30% in cash until market stabilizes, nevertheless investor should exit from weak and under performing stock in the rally and try to remain in quality stock, that is having least leverage, good governance and consistent growth.      

Technical– Technically market look poised for more downside the first important support for the market is placed at 11100, but the asset test support lies at 10600 and as long as market is above this level there is good hope for the bull to come back. On the higher side 11720 is first important resistance followed by 11800, market may come out form the woods only if it manages to close above 11800 and stays there. The short term range for the market is 11300 – 11700 and the Inter mediate range is between 11100 and 11800. Movement in either direction beyond this range will determine the further trend.

Market Update for 8th July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant

The event budget failed to enthuse the market, as a result market fell sharply by almost 1.25% in terms of index, but the fall outside the index was catastrophic and stock fell by 2 – 8%. The internals of the markets were extremely poor, and all this happened with higher volumes. The budget failed in policy regarding growth. Government going forward looking to borrow big time from overseas and this according to us is not a good sign, however some long term rationalisation majors were taken that could prove good in the long term, the very rich now will be taxed higher and the middle class by virtue of exemption limit of 5 lakh will get some relief. More thrust was given on encouraging of electric vehicles and lot of incentives was given in manufacturing the same. Higher excise duty on petroleum products and rising custom duty on gold will be look upon negatively. Although markets failed badly on Friday but still remained within a range between 11600 and 12000. It has to be seen how the market will behave on Monday and Tuesday and further course of action will be decided thereon.    

Technical– Technically markets in terms of Nifty looks vulnerable to more fall, trade in close below 11725 will bring down the market to 11625. As long as markets are above 11600 there is still a hope of bulls to stage a comeback, however close 11600 would see a extended fall or protracted corrective action and market could test perhaps 11100 – 11000. Since the market is crucially poised reversal cannot be totally ruled out, if the experts after looking to the blue prints of Union Budget and World markets cues  feels that budget may boost the economy that in terms of levels market may test 12000 initially and a close above this levels it could test 12400 – 12800 levels.

Market Update for 1st July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant

AMID VOLATILE MOVES MARKETS ENDED THE DAY ON WEAK NOTE, HOWEVER, THE WEEK ENDED ON POSITIVE NOTE, BUT THE MONTH ENDED ON NEGATIVE NOTE, THIS DEMOSTRATES THE KIND OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKETS. HENCE VOLATILITY IS PERSISTENT. THE NEXT MONTH IS VERY CRITICAL FOR THE MARKETS, THE ‘MAKE OR MAR’ MONTH, LOT OF EVENT AND NEWS FLOWS LIKE THE OUTCOME FROM THE ONGOING G20 MEET, FORTHCOMING UNION BUDGET ON 5 JULY, MONSOON SPREAD AND THE QUARTERLY CORPORATE RESULT WILL ALL DETERMINE THE MARKET TREND GOING FORWARD. IN EXTREME SHORT TERM THE NIFTY REPRESENTING MARKETS WILL BE IN TIGHT RANGE OF 11700 AND 11900. NEVERTHELESS STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES WILL CONTINUE PARTICULARLY ONCE THE BUDGET IS ANNOUNCED. INVESTORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND VERY STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC, THIS IS A TOUGH MARKET.

Technical–TECHNICALLY THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS WEAK AND NOW VER CLOSE TO ITS SHORT TERM SUPPORT OF 11700, A CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL MORE CORRECTIVE ACTION WILL WITNESS 11600 AND PERHAPS SUB 11500 LEVELS. HOWEVER, IF 11700 IS HELD THEN AT BEST MARKET WILL REMAIN IN A RANGE, AND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS MARKETS WILL TAKE ITS OWN COURSE, ALTHOUGH IN EXTREME SHORT TERM MARKETS APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND VULNERABLE, ONLY A CLOSE ABOVE 12100 WILL SEE A FRESH UPMOVE AND TE NIFTY WILL TEST 12600 TO 13000 LEVELS. IN CONCLUSION THE SHORT AND THE MEDIUM TERM TREND FOR THE MARKETS IS UNCERTAIN, NONETHELESS, THE LONG TERM TREND IS UP AND INTACT.

Markets remain range bound - Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant

Markets last week traded lower in the midst of geo – political concern in Iran and no clarity on US and China trade barriers and Budget worries, hence the market closed lower for the week by almost 0.5%. There was across the board selling in all the sectors and it was a pathetic close on Friday. It appears until budget on July 5, market would remain in a broader range between 11400 to 12000, unless there is an improvement in the global issues and forth coming budget we would have to see whether markets surge higher, however if budget prove to be lacklustre and there are no major policy decision on the economy, markets would see a sharp decline. Investors are once again suggested to remain at least 20-30% in cash to be deployed post budget.

Technical–Technically markets are crucially poised within a range. If a break out above 12000 happens, market will witness a sharp rally towards 12600 – 12800 levels and initially if markets break down 10600 and closes below this level, it would test 10400. Below this there would be catastrophe and market could see sub 11000 levels. In the best case scenario, it appears, until budget the market would remain in a range. Short term range is between 10600 – 10900 and the Intermediate (Medium Term) or the Broader range would be 10400 – 12000.  

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 18th March 2019

Markets are expecting Modi govt. to win the general elections and upward trend in global market helps market to rally about 11050 and 11200 and now, poised for higher levels. Looking at the market scenario it appears that this is a pre election rally in anticipation of strong government at the centre. It needs to be seen how the market closes under financial year ending 31^st March 2019, next quarter is an election period for the market and if the existing government comes back to power then we can see the boost in the rally and market would in that case test 12500 to 13000 in the Nifty. However with so many parties, regional parties are in the fray and if uncertainty about the government remains, it would be deeply negative for the markets. One needs to watch out for election result and take major position after that.      

Technical– The markets finally took a breakout above 11070 and continued its upward journey, market is likely to face stiff resistance at 11800, a close above this level could get us to level of 12500 to 13000, nevertheless in the best case scenario market may remain range bound between 11150 to 11770. Further breakout above 11770 will confirm market entering 12000 plus levels. Despite market being at its lifetime high, there are stock specific moments. If this may continue then market would remain in broad range. Long term investors can buy quality stocks with the view of 2 to 3 years.   

      

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Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 06th March 2019

Markets seem to be rightly priced at the moment since some bad or good news is unable to breakout or breakdown the markets and perhaps the market is anticipating some major news flow. Nevertheless the market ended the week and the day higher by half a per cent within the range.

The war like situation between India and Pakistan if escalates then certainly the nifty would go down below 1000 to make a panic bottom, however a positive news flows may be victory of present Govt. though the odds have come down but nevertheless it be a major trigger for the market. It further appears that stock specific move should continue amongst the stocks that are well governed, consistent in profit and having low debt. This is a good portfolio restructure time since good stocks available at decent price, long term investors should buy these kind of stocks and patiently hold on to them.

Technical– Technically markets are in a range bound situation, nifty is trading within a specified range perhaps awaiting some news flows. In extremely near term the support exist at 10800 and then perhaps at 10640 below that a corrective action may see sub ten thousand levels. A close above 11050 would initially see 11200 and then perhaps 12000 plus levels should be on card. The sideways movement suggest that range bound markets will continue for some more day before breakout or a decisive breakdown. Investors are suggested to be a good portion in cash to be deployed if the markets breakout, or on deep correction and panic bottom.

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Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 04th February 2019

Amid volatile and stocks specific moves last week, the markets ended the week on positive note up above a per cent and little short of major resistance of 11050. Although the markets during the week traded lower with uncertainties of interim budget, it was only on Thursday and Friday, on the interim budget day, that the markets moved higher to finish the week on positive note. The interim budget had mix reviews and showed the Government’s intention to give sops to middle class with tax exemption and cash transfer to the farmers. It needs to be seen how this is implemented and from where the funds will come- the Govt. will have to answer.

Going forward the focus will now be on the world economy and Market behavior and the forthcoming general Elections. Hence it appears that range bound trade will continue for some more time unless the market gets some significant good or bad news flows to pull or push the markets beyond range. The structure of the market and stock reveals that nevertheless stocks specific moves would continue.

Technical–Technically the market is gone for consolidation phase once again with 10750 as short term support and 11050 as resistance, with major breakout  at 11200 and support at 10600, these levels will make or mar the markets. Below a close of 10600 the markets will test 10500 and then perhaps 10000, or even lower. On the higher side if the Nifty manages to close above 11050 then initially it would test 11200 and then 12000 plus levels will be on cards. In the interim period the range one needs to watch out is 10600 and 11050 and in a little longer term one needs to look out for 10500 and 11200.

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Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 21st January 2019

Markets on the back of improved quarterly result by few large cap companies like Reliance, Infosys, Wipro, Hind Unilever etc. and some policy announcement by the Govt. on agriculture, infra-structure and DIGITIZATION, and with reduced inflation and better economic outlook the markets ended the week on higher note, up over 1 per cent, apart from these companies some more Mid and Small cap companies gave improved result but the buoyancy in the market will come once the election results are announced that is three to four months away, further with improved global markets it appears that the year 2019 will be a better year for Investment. The sectors look poised to grow in sectors like Consumer goods, Healthcare, Information Technology and Infrastructure.

Investors should be stocks specifically and cautiously optimistic on the markets and buy only those stocks that are giving consistently good earnings and conversely ignore stocks with poor earnings.

Technical– Technically markets looks poised against the major breakout at 11200 minor breakout at 11050, if the markets is successful in clearing the deck of this two major huddle, then certainly it will poised to test the all-time  high of around 11800, if closes above this level then certainly test much higher levels. However if it fails to close above major huddle of 11200 and close below 10780 it will once again go for corrective action. Hence the initial range for the Nifty is between 10780 and 11050 and wider range of 10700 and 11200.

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Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 07th January 2019

On the back of weak and volatile global markets may it be equity or commodity ended the week on negative note, though finish the day on Friday on positive note with improved volumes, the European and US markets too ended the day on Friday on a robust close in anticipation that world economic growth including from emerging markets particularly. Indian scenario is concerned the volatility is likely to continue due to general election few months away the outcome for the same would determine the course of market, plus some populous measures taken by the government will be detrimental for the markets. Quarterly results will also play key role. We expect the year 2019 would be volatile and range bound unless good news on economy and government stability will act as a trigger for the markets. Markets will be very stocks specific, it will not be the cats and dogs’ market, companies doing well will be rewarded and companies reporting bad results will at same time punished. I call this year 2019 to be a more rational year for the equity markets and stocks will discover the fair values.

Technical- Technically the markets on expected lines are range bound and will continue to remain so until it breaks out 11050 levels on the Nifty with improved volumes, conversely it the markets breakdown the lower levels say 10500 on close basis then a prolonged correction is not ruled out. And until then market will oscillates initially between 10600 and 10950, hence we can say as the days go by the markets will sooner than later find the either breakout or breakdown though chances of breakout seemingly looks higher.

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Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 31st December 2018

ON THE BACKDROP OF WEAK AND VOLATILE GLOBAL CUES AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS THE MARKET, WORLD OVER, FELL DRASTICALLY AND RECOVERED A BIT INCLUDING THE INDIAN MARKETS AND ENDED THE DAY AND WEEK MARGINALLY HIGHER THOUGH WITH LOWER VOLUMES ONCE AGAIN, AND POOR MARKET BREADTH (INTERNALS). WORLD WITNESSED A RADICAL FALL IN OIL AND COMMODITY PRICES HENCE CONFIRMING SLOW DOWN OF THE WORLD ECONOMY. THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN RANGE WITH SIDEWAYS BIAS, ANY FURTHER BAD NEWS ON ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL OR POLITICAL FRONT WILL WITNESS A SHARP AND SWIFT FALL AND THE OUTCOME WILL BE A FATAL AND PROLONGED SELL OFF. HOWEVER, SELECTED STOCK SPECIFIC MOVE SHALL CONTINUE. THE COMPANIES WITH CONSISTENT PROFIT, GOOD GOVERNANCE AND LOW DEBT ARE LIKELY TO DO WELL IN EQUITY MARKET.

FURTHER GOVT. POLICY ON REFORM AND FORTH COMING GENERAL ELECTION WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE. ACCORDING TO MANY ANALYSTS THE YEAR OF 2019 WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND STOCK SPECIFIC. THIS IS STILL AN INVESTOR’S MARKETS AND GOOD COMPANY STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT FROM A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE, SECTORS LIKELY TO DO WELL ARE CONSUMER GOODS, INDUSTRIALS, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS, FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE AND CONSTRUCTION.

Technical-Technically THE MARKET IS POISED FOR RANGE BOUND TRADE WITH 10550 ULTIMATE SUPPORT AND 11050 ON CLOSES BASIS RESISTANCE, a close above 11050 the Nifty would initially test 11200 and then, markets can  witness a secular rally towards 12000 plus levels, however close below 10700 the Nifty would test 11550 , if this happens then a prolong correction is not ruled out and markets will enter the bear market , although according to us we have maintained that this is a corrective action and not a bear markets, however one need to look out for 10500 on the lower side and 11050 on higher side very closely to determine the trend going forward.

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Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 17th December 2018

Markets being oversold staged a throwback rally last week on the back of stable govt for state assembly and no hung parliament in any of the five states turned positive for the markets and bear covering rally did its job and ended the week and the day on positive note. Though it was a minor set back for the present central government but looking at the fact that it is still six months away will give respite to government, the under current for the markets look bullish being held despite global markets showing weakness, hence it appears that 10400 to 10600 offers good support for the markets fundamentally. It further needs to be seen how the corporate results are unfolded which is less than a month away. It further needs to be seen how the global and commodity market behave and that shall have baring on Indian markets.

Investors should be cautiously and stocks specifically optimistic on the markets and are still advised to be a portion in cash for any contingency or eventuality.

Technical- Technically after the throwback rally last week, market once again is in a range bound trade, the near-term range is between 10550 and 10950, a close on either side will determine further trend. In the extreme near term the range is between 10650 and 10950. The intermediate (medium term) trend is although down and shall turn up if the Nifty closes above 11050 and stays there. In event of close above 11050 markets will be poised for new historic high, though that looks a bit difficult now, however a close below 10550 the nifty would initially test 10350 and then perhaps 10000 is likely to get tested. 

Market Brief for 13th August 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – MARKETS TRADED IN A NARROW RANGE DURING LAST WEEK BEFORE ENDING IT MARGINALLY HIGHER, THE MARKETS BREADTH (INTERNALS) WERE TOO WEAK AND THE STOCKS IN FAVOUR OF ADVANCE TO DECLINE WERE NEGATIVE TOO. WITH GEO-POLITICAL CONCERNS IN IRAN AND AS THE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTION COMING CLOSER THE MARKETS HAS A HABBIT OF GETTING JITTERY, AND SINCE THE COPRPORATES RESULTS ARE BEHIND US WERE A MIX BAG, WITH SOME COMPANIES REPORTING EXCELLENT RESULTS AND SOME REELING UNDER PRESSURE, AND NOW THE GLOBAL MARKETS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURFACE , ALTHOUGH THE WORLD ECONOMIIES AND NOT DOING SO BADLY BUT THE PRICE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRICE DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE VALUE.IT FURTHER APPEARS THAT MARKETS UNTIL ASSEMBLY AND GENEARAL ELECTION WILL BE EARSTWHILE CHOPPY AND VOLATILE. INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP A PORTION OF CASH IN HAND TO BE DEPLOYED ONCE THERE IS STABILITY AND POSITIVE NEWS FLOW STARTS POURING IN. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT UNTIL SOME POSITIVE SURPRISES MARKETS WILL LOOK FRAIL AND VULNERABLE FOR CORRECTION

Technical–MARKETS AFTER 6 WEEKS OF RISE SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME MOMENTUM AND IN THE NEAR-TERM IT MAY CORRECT AND CONSOLIDATE UNLESS TECNICALLY CLOSES ABOVE 11500, ON THE LOWER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE SUPPORT RIGHT FROM  10900 TO 11400, MARKETS MAY HAVE WLD SWING IN BOTH THE DIREDCTION UNTILL IT GETS CLEAR THAT MARKETS WILL CONFIRM CORRECTION BY CLOSING BELOW 11360, HENCE IN THE SHORT TERM 11360 ON CLOSE REMANINS VITAL SUPPORT AND BELOW THIS CORRECTION COULD GET SHARPER AND NIFTY WOULD TEST 11240. THE LONG AND THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND WILL STILL BE INTACT.

INVESTORS SHOULD BE STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE MARKETS AT THE SAME TIME UMDERPERFROMING STOCK SHOULD FIND A WAY FOR EXIT. SECTOR THAT HOLD PROMISE ARE FMCG, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS & INSUSTRILES.

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Market Brief for 13th August 2018 by Imtiaz Mechant

Market Brief – MARKETS TRADED IN A NARROW RANGE DURING LAST WEEK BEFORE ENDING IT MARGINALLY HIGHER, THE MARKETS BREADTH (INTERNALS) WERE TOO WEAK AND THE STOCKS IN FAVOUR OF ADVANCE TO DECLINE WERE NEGATIVE TOO. WITH GEO-POLITICAL CONCERNS IN IRAN AND AS THE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTION COMING CLOSER THE MARKETS HAS A HABBIT OF GETTING JITTERY, AND SINCE THE COPRPORATES RESULTS ARE BEHIND US WERE A MIX BAG, WITH SOME COMPANIES REPORTING EXCELLENT RESULTS AND SOME REELING UNDER PRESSURE, AND NOW THE GLOBAL MARKETS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURFACE , ALTHOUGH THE WORLD ECONOMIIES AND NOT DOING SO BADLY BUT THE PRICE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRICE DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE VALUE.IT FURTHER APPEARS THAT MARKETS UNTIL ASSEMBLY AND GENEARAL ELECTION WILL BE EARSTWHILE CHOPPY AND VOLATILE. INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP A PORTION OF CASH IN HAND TO BE DEPLOYED ONCE THERE IS STABILITY AND POSITIVE NEWS FLOW STARTS POURING IN. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT UNTIL SOME POSITIVE SURPRISES MARKETS WILL LOOK FRAIL AND VULNERABLE FOR CORRECTION

Technical–MARKETS AFTER 6 WEEKS OF RISE SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME MOMENTUM AND IN THE NEAR-TERM IT MAY CORRECT AND CONSOLIDATE UNLESS TECNICALLY CLOSES ABOVE 11500, ON THE LOWER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE SUPPORT RIGHT FROM  10900 TO 11400, MARKETS MAY HAVE WLD SWING IN BOTH THE DIREDCTION UNTILL IT GETS CLEAR THAT MARKETS WILL CONFIRM CORRECTION BY CLOSING BELOW 11360, HENCE IN THE SHORT TERM 11360 ON CLOSE REMANINS VITAL SUPPORT AND BELOW THIS CORRECTION COULD GET SHARPER AND NIFTY WOULD TEST 11240. THE LONG AND THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND WILL STILL BE INTACT.

INVESTORS SHOULD BE STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE MARKETS AT THE SAME TIME UMDERPERFROMING STOCK SHOULD FIND A WAY FOR EXIT. SECTOR THAT HOLD PROMISE ARE FMCG, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS & INSUSTRILES.

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Market Brief for 30th July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – undertone being bullish, and some policy announcements on GST reduction followed by across the board good corporate results witness a sharp rally into new historic high to end the week on robust note, up almost 2.75%, once again justified that the market is in full control of bulls and more upside is coming. Buying was witnessed in sectors like Banking, Consumer goods, including FMCG, selected Pharma stocks, Oil & Gas and Mid-Caps. Reliance has given a decent set of numbers and it must be seen how the markets react to it, perhaps positively and in that case, markets will see much higher levels. With oil prices retreating, it has given further impetus to markets. In the near term, it appears that market has no threat but in the medium term with the forthcoming assembly as well as Lok Sabha elections at the end of the year remains a caveat (a warning). Selective investment is suggested and the penny stocks that have been battered down should be avoided. One should invest in the leading stocks.              

Technical – markets are well poised to see higher levels after a successful breakout above the previous historic high of 11170 and that too with increased volumes, signifying more participants, on the higher side Nifty is likely to test 11500 to 11600 levels. On the lower side there are multiple supports right from 10900 to 11200. Lower levels should be used for buying selectively. In the longer run the Nifty is likely to test 12000 plus levels.

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Market Brief for 16th July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – Market inched up higher last week up by 2.28%, thanks to heavy weight like Reliance, TCS, Hindustan Unilever and selected Banks and Consumers stocks. With Reliance scaling up to new high has Mukesh Ambani the richest man in Asia. By virtue of that Reliance has became the biggest Indian corporation. Although India’s export grew by 17% but there was stagnancy were economy is concern like the fall in the Industrial product, Rising inflation and Flat GDP growth are instrumental in Economic slowdown, However Govt. is optimistic of business improving soon. Amid this negative the positive factor was Good Monsoon across the country is likely to increase productivity as well as rural consumption, so may be in the short term market will be volatile and range bound but in Medium to Long term market are likely to see much higher levels. 

Technical–  Market last week broke out from the range above 10950 and is now poised for higher levels. Technically market on the lower side has raise his range from 10500 to 10700, On higher side 11200 the previous historic high remains important resistance as long as market remain above 10700 to 10800 it is likely to go to a new high, only a close below 10700 could be threatening for the market which is less likely unless some drastic negative news. On the higher side one more break out above 11200 then Nifty is likely to test 11500 to 11600. Investors are strictly suggested to remain quality bullish stocks and Exit from weak and underperforming stocks. 

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Market Brief for 9th July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – Markets on expected lines traded in a range during last week to end the week marginally up, Due to absence of major news flows market failed to gather momentum and remained sideways. There are good news flows like Good Monsoon, Govt. policy initiative of MSP to the farmers is expected to boost the rural consumption demand, and the trade tariff policy between China and America is favourable for USA is also positive indicators for the markets. The uncertain factors at the same time remain on Domestic politics and the forthcoming Assembly Elections during the later part this year will keep the market jittery and uncertain. Although market is well poised for breakout on upside and this can happen only if the economic growth is to visible, Govt. policies announcement and how the election unfolds. Sectors that are looking good at this stage are Auto, Consumption, Healthcare and selected stock form Infrastructure, Oil & Gas, One should refrain investing in cyclical sectors like Mines & Metals.

Technical– Market last week after testing 10600 recovered, to end the week on mildly positive note. This is the 3^rd month of the market being in range and this month or maximum next month it will be vividly clear about the breakup or break down, In terms of technical’s the first breakout on the Nifty is placed at 10950 and then 11200 the historic high register in January this year close above 11200 market will have a secular run upwards, However since the market is still in the range 10600 remains a strong support and a close below 10550 will virtually see a secular downtrend and market will see substantial lower levels. The range for the Nifty for the coming week would be between 10700 and 10950. One should watch out for this level and take action accordingly. This is still a stock specific market.

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Market Brief for 2nd July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – Mix news flows kept the markets jittery and volatile during the week, with oil prices hitting the roof top as a result weakening dolour, Govt envisaged to further hike of oil prices may cause inflation and cost of production to go up and perhaps may decrease the consumption, although the monsoon appears to be normal would negate some the problems faced by the economy. Despite slow down in the economy and lack of drastic policy action by govt, the PE multiple still favour the bulls unless reported weak corporate earnings, may be a setback for the markets. Sectors that are likely to do well are the information Technology, Consumer Good & Services (including the FMGC), very selected Pharma and Industrials.

Technical– In the absence of any significant news flows the markets once again traded in a range and amid volatility ended the day on Friday on a robust note, however the week ended marginally lower. Range bound trade is likely to continue until the Nifty closes above 10950 and Sensex closes above 36000. On the lower side first very, important support exists at 10550 closes below this the nifty will be poised to test 10400 the final level to watch in medium term. For extremely long term 9300 is vital support and the market is less likely to test that. The near term range for Nifty is 10550 and 10950, from a medium term perception 10400 and 11200 remains important range.

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