Tuesday, 7 June 2016

Indian Equity Markets – The Weekly Report By Imtiaz Merchant

On the back of mixed news flows and the news flows likely to come next week, the Indian markets traded in a relatively smaller range and reduced volatility last week. It closed the week higher but with far too less a percentage as compared to the previous week. RBI policy, Global markets, crude prices, the much awaited monsoon and policy initiative by the government will determine the trend going forward. The current earning seasons ended relatively better with quite a lot of companies reporting results better than the expectations, hence the market held its head high to finish the week above 8200 first time since October 2015, signifying the inherent strength.

Technically, the market is poised for more upside in the near term but would face major resistance between 8340 and 8400 levels and until 8400 is surpassed on close basis the markets could remain in broad range and will be very stocks specific. On the lower side, supports for Nifty is available between 7900 and 8000 and so long as Nifty holds 7900 on close basis the markets will be in the favor of bulls therefore lower levels can be used for selective buying. In the best case scenario, if the markets manage to breakout 8400 it would certainly test the 8650 to 8800 level.

This is a very stock specific market thus investors should be prudent in selecting the stocks, and the most sensible way is to invest in companies that have least debts and good corporate governance. The portfolio as a whole should be well balanced with sectors and size like the auto, consumer good & services (discretionary & non discretionary), information technology and selected stocks from industrials & capital goods sector. One should also ensure that at least 50 to 60 percent of one's portfolio has large size companies in terms of value and it is wise not to invest more than 10 to 12 percentages in one stock of one's portfolio. This will ensure that the risk is well spread and the portfolio is more insulated from risk.

'Buying when others are selling despondently and selling when others are buying greedily requires great fortitude and wisdom, but would yield the highest reward'

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