Saturday 29 December 2018

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 31st December 2018


ON THE BACKDROP OF WEAK AND VOLATILE GLOBAL CUES AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS THE MARKET, WORLD OVER, FELL DRASTICALLY AND RECOVERED A BIT INCLUDING THE INDIAN MARKETS AND ENDED THE DAY AND WEEK MARGINALLY HIGHER THOUGH WITH LOWER VOLUMES ONCE AGAIN, AND POOR MARKET BREADTH (INTERNALS). WORLD WITNESSED A RADICAL FALL IN OIL AND COMMODITY PRICES HENCE CONFIRMING SLOW DOWN OF THE WORLD ECONOMY. THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN RANGE WITH SIDEWAYS BIAS, ANY FURTHER BAD NEWS ON ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL OR POLITICAL FRONT WILL WITNESS A SHARP AND SWIFT FALL AND THE OUTCOME WILL BE A FATAL AND PROLONGED SELL OFF. HOWEVER, SELECTED STOCK SPECIFIC MOVE SHALL CONTINUE. THE COMPANIES WITH CONSISTENT PROFIT, GOOD GOVERNANCE AND LOW DEBT ARE LIKELY TO DO WELL IN EQUITY MARKET.

FURTHER GOVT. POLICY ON REFORM AND FORTH COMING GENERAL ELECTION WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE. ACCORDING TO MANY ANALYSTS THE YEAR OF 2019 WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND STOCK SPECIFIC. THIS IS STILL AN INVESTOR’S MARKETS AND GOOD COMPANY STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT FROM A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE, SECTORS LIKELY TO DO WELL ARE CONSUMER GOODS, INDUSTRIALS, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS, FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE AND CONSTRUCTION.


Technical-Technically THE MARKET IS POISED FOR RANGE BOUND TRADE WITH 10550 ULTIMATE SUPPORT AND 11050 ON CLOSES BASIS RESISTANCE, a close above 11050 the Nifty would initially test 11200 and then, markets can  witness a secular rally towards 12000 plus levels, however close below 10700 the Nifty would test 11550 , if this happens then a prolong correction is not ruled out and markets will enter the bear market , although according to us we have maintained that this is a corrective action and not a bear markets, however one need to look out for 10500 on the lower side and 11050 on higher side very closely to determine the trend going forward.

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Friday 14 December 2018

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 17th December 2018







Markets being oversold staged a throwback rally last week on the back of stable govt for state assembly and no hung parliament in any of the five states turned positive for the markets and bear covering rally did its job and ended the week and the day on positive note. Though it was a minor set back for the present central government but looking at the fact that it is still six months away will give respite to government, the under current for the markets look bullish being held despite global markets showing weakness, hence it appears that 10400 to 10600 offers good support for the markets fundamentally. It further needs to be seen how the corporate results are unfolded which is less than a month away. It further needs to be seen how the global and commodity market behave and that shall have baring on Indian markets.

Investors should be cautiously and stocks specifically optimistic on the markets and are still advised to be a portion in cash for any contingency or eventuality.

Technical- Technically after the throwback rally last week, market once again is in a range bound trade, the near-term range is between 10550 and 10950, a close on either side will determine further trend. In the extreme near term the range is between 10650 and 10950. The intermediate (medium term) trend is although down and shall turn up if the Nifty closes above 11050 and stays there. In event of close above 11050 markets will be poised for new historic high, though that looks a bit difficult now, however a close below 10550 the nifty would initially test 10350 and then perhaps 10000 is likely to get tested.