Sunday, 12 August 2018

Market Brief for 13th August 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant


Market Brief MARKETS TRADED IN A NARROW RANGE DURING LAST WEEK BEFORE ENDING IT MARGINALLY HIGHER, THE MARKETS BREADTH (INTERNALS) WERE TOO WEAK AND THE STOCKS IN FAVOUR OF ADVANCE TO DECLINE WERE NEGATIVE TOO. WITH GEO-POLITICAL CONCERNS IN IRAN AND AS THE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTION COMING CLOSER THE MARKETS HAS A HABBIT OF GETTING JITTERY, AND SINCE THE COPRPORATES RESULTS ARE BEHIND US WERE A MIX BAG, WITH SOME COMPANIES REPORTING EXCELLENT RESULTS AND SOME REELING UNDER PRESSURE, AND NOW THE GLOBAL MARKETS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURFACE , ALTHOUGH THE WORLD ECONOMIIES AND NOT DOING SO BADLY BUT THE PRICE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRICE DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE VALUE.IT FURTHER APPEARS THAT MARKETS UNTIL ASSEMBLY AND GENEARAL ELECTION WILL BE EARSTWHILE CHOPPY AND VOLATILE. INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP A PORTION OF CASH IN HAND TO BE DEPLOYED ONCE THERE IS STABILITY AND POSITIVE NEWS FLOW STARTS POURING IN. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT UNTIL SOME POSITIVE SURPRISES MARKETS WILL LOOK FRAIL AND VULNERABLE FOR CORRECTION
TechnicalMARKETS AFTER 6 WEEKS OF RISE SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME MOMENTUM AND IN THE NEAR-TERM IT MAY CORRECT AND CONSOLIDATE UNLESS TECNICALLY CLOSES ABOVE 11500, ON THE LOWER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE SUPPORT RIGHT FROM  10900 TO 11400, MARKETS MAY HAVE WLD SWING IN BOTH THE DIREDCTION UNTILL IT GETS CLEAR THAT MARKETS WILL CONFIRM CORRECTION BY CLOSING BELOW 11360, HENCE IN THE SHORT TERM 11360 ON CLOSE REMANINS VITAL SUPPORT AND BELOW THIS CORRECTION COULD GET SHARPER AND NIFTY WOULD TEST 11240. THE LONG AND THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND WILL STILL BE INTACT.
INVESTORS SHOULD BE STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE MARKETS AT THE SAME TIME UMDERPERFROMING STOCK SHOULD FIND A WAY FOR EXIT. SECTOR THAT HOLD PROMISE ARE FMCG, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS & INSUSTRILES.


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Market Brief for 13th August 2018 by Imtiaz Mechant


Market Brief MARKETS TRADED IN A NARROW RANGE DURING LAST WEEK BEFORE ENDING IT MARGINALLY HIGHER, THE MARKETS BREADTH (INTERNALS) WERE TOO WEAK AND THE STOCKS IN FAVOUR OF ADVANCE TO DECLINE WERE NEGATIVE TOO. WITH GEO-POLITICAL CONCERNS IN IRAN AND AS THE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTION COMING CLOSER THE MARKETS HAS A HABBIT OF GETTING JITTERY, AND SINCE THE COPRPORATES RESULTS ARE BEHIND US WERE A MIX BAG, WITH SOME COMPANIES REPORTING EXCELLENT RESULTS AND SOME REELING UNDER PRESSURE, AND NOW THE GLOBAL MARKETS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURFACE , ALTHOUGH THE WORLD ECONOMIIES AND NOT DOING SO BADLY BUT THE PRICE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRICE DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE VALUE.IT FURTHER APPEARS THAT MARKETS UNTIL ASSEMBLY AND GENEARAL ELECTION WILL BE EARSTWHILE CHOPPY AND VOLATILE. INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP A PORTION OF CASH IN HAND TO BE DEPLOYED ONCE THERE IS STABILITY AND POSITIVE NEWS FLOW STARTS POURING IN. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT UNTIL SOME POSITIVE SURPRISES MARKETS WILL LOOK FRAIL AND VULNERABLE FOR CORRECTION
TechnicalMARKETS AFTER 6 WEEKS OF RISE SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME MOMENTUM AND IN THE NEAR-TERM IT MAY CORRECT AND CONSOLIDATE UNLESS TECNICALLY CLOSES ABOVE 11500, ON THE LOWER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE SUPPORT RIGHT FROM  10900 TO 11400, MARKETS MAY HAVE WLD SWING IN BOTH THE DIREDCTION UNTILL IT GETS CLEAR THAT MARKETS WILL CONFIRM CORRECTION BY CLOSING BELOW 11360, HENCE IN THE SHORT TERM 11360 ON CLOSE REMANINS VITAL SUPPORT AND BELOW THIS CORRECTION COULD GET SHARPER AND NIFTY WOULD TEST 11240. THE LONG AND THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND WILL STILL BE INTACT.
INVESTORS SHOULD BE STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE MARKETS AT THE SAME TIME UMDERPERFROMING STOCK SHOULD FIND A WAY FOR EXIT. SECTOR THAT HOLD PROMISE ARE FMCG, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS & INSUSTRILES.


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Sunday, 29 July 2018

Market Brief for 30th July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – undertone being bullish, and some policy announcements on GST reduction followed by across the board good corporate results witness a sharp rally into new historic high to end the week on robust note, up almost 2.75%, once again justified that the market is in full control of bulls and more upside is coming. Buying was witnessed in sectors like Banking, Consumer goods, including FMCG, selected Pharma stocks, Oil & Gas and Mid-Caps. Reliance has given a decent set of numbers and it must be seen how the markets react to it, perhaps positively and in that case, markets will see much higher levels. With oil prices retreating, it has given further impetus to markets. In the near term, it appears that market has no threat but in the medium term with the forthcoming assembly as well as Lok Sabha elections at the end of the year remains a caveat (a warning). Selective investment is suggested and the penny stocks that have been battered down should be avoided. One should invest in the leading stocks.              
Technical – markets are well poised to see higher levels after a successful breakout above the previous historic high of 11170 and that too with increased volumes, signifying more participants, on the higher side Nifty is likely to test 11500 to 11600 levels. On the lower side there are multiple supports right from 10900 to 11200. Lower levels should be used for buying selectively. In the longer run the Nifty is likely to test 12000 plus levels.
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Saturday, 14 July 2018

Market Brief for 16th July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – Market inched up higher last week up by 2.28%, thanks to heavy weight like Reliance, TCS, Hindustan Unilever and selected Banks and Consumers stocks. With Reliance scaling up to new high has Mukesh Ambani the richest man in Asia. By virtue of that Reliance has became the biggest Indian corporation. Although India’s export grew by 17% but there was stagnancy were economy is concern like the fall in the Industrial product, Rising inflation and Flat GDP growth are instrumental in Economic slowdown, However Govt. is optimistic of business improving soon. Amid this negative the positive factor was Good Monsoon across the country is likely to increase productivity as well as rural consumption, so may be in the short term market will be volatile and range bound but in Medium to Long term market are likely to see much higher levels. 

Technical  Market last week broke out from the range above 10950 and is now poised for higher levels. Technically market on the lower side has raise his range from 10500 to 10700, On higher side 11200 the previous historic high remains important resistance as long as market remain above 10700 to 10800 it is likely to go to a new high, only a close below 10700 could be threatening for the market which is less likely unless some drastic negative news. On the higher side one more break out above 11200 then Nifty is likely to test 11500 to 11600. Investors are strictly suggested to remain quality bullish stocks and Exit from weak and underperforming stocks. 


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Market Brief for 9th July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant


Market Brief – Markets on expected lines traded in a range during last week to end the week marginally up, Due to absence of major news flows market failed to gather momentum and remained sideways. There are good news flows like Good Monsoon, Govt. policy initiative of MSP to the farmers is expected to boost the rural consumption demand, and the trade tariff policy between China and America is favourable for USA is also positive indicators for the markets. The uncertain factors at the same time remain on Domestic politics and the forthcoming Assembly Elections during the later part this year will keep the market jittery and uncertain. Although market is well poised for breakout on upside and this can happen only if the economic growth is to visible, Govt. policies announcement and how the election unfolds. Sectors that are looking good at this stage are Auto, Consumption, Healthcare and selected stock form Infrastructure, Oil & Gas, One should refrain investing in cyclical sectors like Mines & Metals.
Technical Market last week after testing 10600 recovered, to end the week on mildly positive note. This is the 3rd month of the market being in range and this month or maximum next month it will be vividly clear about the breakup or break down, In terms of technical’s the first breakout on the Nifty is placed at 10950 and then 11200 the historic high register in January this year close above 11200 market will have a secular run upwards, However since the market is still in the range 10600 remains a strong support and a close below 10550 will virtually see a secular downtrend and market will see substantial lower levels. The range for the Nifty for the coming week would be between 10700 and 10950. One should watch out for this level and take action accordingly. This is still a stock specific market.


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PRAGMATIC WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT. LTD.
Head Office:
102, 1st Floor, Topaz Society,
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Tel: +91-022-23001290
Whatsapp:+91 9022178683
E-mail: contact@pragmaticwealth.net

Saturday, 30 June 2018

Market Brief for 2nd July 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant


Market Brief – Mix news flows kept the markets jittery and volatile during the week, with oil prices hitting the roof top as a result weakening dolour, Govt envisaged to further hike of oil prices may cause inflation and cost of production to go up and perhaps may decrease the consumption, although the monsoon appears to be normal would negate some the problems faced by the economy. Despite slow down in the economy and lack of drastic policy action by govt, the PE multiple still favour the bulls unless reported weak corporate earnings, may be a setback for the markets. Sectors that are likely to do well are the information Technology, Consumer Good & Services (including the FMGC), very selected Pharma and Industrials.
Technical In the absence of any significant news flows the markets once again traded in a range and amid volatility ended the day on Friday on a robust note, however the week ended marginally lower. Range bound trade is likely to continue until the Nifty closes above 10950 and Sensex closes above 36000. On the lower side first very, important support exists at 10550 closes below this the nifty will be poised to test 10400 the final level to watch in medium term. For extremely long term 9300 is vital support and the market is less likely to test that. The near term range for Nifty is 10550 and 10950, from a medium term perception 10400 and 11200 remains important range.



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Saturday, 23 June 2018

Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant - 25th June 2018


Market Brief – Amongst the mixed news flows, weak global cues and falling crude prices, strengthening of Rupee kept the market jittery, as a result market remain volatile and range bound finally on Friday it rallied to end the week on flat note, still giving hope to Bulls. Prime Minister statement that India is having a robust growth and will be a $5 trillion economy, this news is likely to keep market buoyant, with corporate result is expected to delivers good numbers hence markets are showing strength and it appears 10600 is fundamentally strong floor for the market. Sectors that are likely to do well are the Financial, Consumer Goods, Information Technology and Pharmaceuticals the stock of other sectors will selectively do well. This a good time to Buy selected stocks from the mentioned sectors. The deterrent for the market is the upcoming Assembly Elections and it needs to see how it unfolds  
Technical Nifty remains in a range last week and finally ended the day on positive note and the week ended on flat note. Markets has been in a sideways for past two months now, hence a break out above 10950 would witness a swift rally and market will soon see a new historic high, However since the market is still in a range any severe bad news and a close below 10550 would see the market going for deep correction and perhaps even 10000 – 10200 is a possibility, but its early to say that and the probability of market going up is higher. Hence we can conclude that marker is still in the safe hands of Bull and likely to see new high.

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Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant - 18th June 2018


Technical–Markets participants once again remained indecisive and the trend failed to breakout or breakdown and hence traded in a range between 10750 and 10900, the firm breakout for this market is close above 10950 and a breakdown though a distant away at close below 10600 to 10550 will confirm a down trend. It is still not clear, although the long and the short term is up and the intermediate (Medium) trend is down and would turn up close above 10950 this would also witness all trends being up hence big rally is not ruled out. However once should be careful below 10640 and under 10550 the markets would breakdown and would witness across the board sale. Investors should trade cautiously and should remain stocks specifically bullish, at the same time exit from week and underperforming stocks.

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Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant - 11th June 2018


Market Brief – Markets traded in a broad range of almost 300 points and on the back of good global cue rate hike by RBI and anticipated good monsoon, soften crude oil prices, recovered the markets to end the week on modestly positive note otherwise looking a frail market. Although markets rallied from the low, nevertheless, it’s too early to say that markets will see sharp rally until there is more improvement in the underlying fundamental. Going forward the corporate results, monsoon, crude oil prices, economic policy initiative by the Govt., and politics will dominate the markets and one needs to watch out the development closely. Nonetheless, stocks specific moves in the market should continue and investors should look in for companies with least debt or no debt, governance, good cash flow, and progressive gross and net margins of profit. Avoid contra buying.
Technical – Technically the market now is broad range between 10500 and 10900, and extreme near term it is in a range between 10650 and 10850 and a close on either side will determine the trend going forward, the trend is now in sideways. Selected stocks are doing quite well and many of the stocks are not doing well and are near their 52 weeks low particularly in the mid and the small cap companies. It appears that based on the fundamental factors market will sooner than later come out of the range and on breakout one should ride the trend, however if the market chooses to break down then one must use stop loss and exit stocks or else the correction can be sharper than expected.

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Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant - 4th June 2018


Market Brief – Absence of any significant news flow or any major trigger, markets traded in a range, however due to improved global cues it managed to end the week modestly on positive note, up nearly by a percent. Although markets held well for last couple of months but the internals (breadth) has tuned very bad and the numbers of stocks declining for past couple of month outweigh the stocks going up. Thus, this not an investors markets, rather traders market as of now. It further appears that until we have significant good news flows in terms of economy & industry and better political environment and stability markets will remain jittery and frail.
Though some green shoots are visible as well as tailwinds in term of corporate earnings, inflation, correction in international crude prices, rupee expected to be getting stronger, and interest rates appears to soften all this will help in increase in aggregate demand and thus the economy. Nevertheless, the inverse is not completely ruled out. Investors thus should exercise caution, stay partly in cash say 20 to 25 percent to be deployed if there is deep correction or once the market is stabilized.
Technical –Technically market is in a range for quite some time now, with 10400 and a rock-solid support and 10950 a stiff resistance and in extreme short term the range is between 10550 and 10740. It appears that range bound trade is likely to continue for some more time unless it breaks out on either side. Trade and close above 10950 the upward journey will continue into new historic high and a close below 10400 a protracted correction will see substantial downside. Markets needs a superlative and authoritative news flows to move outside the the range and that looks less likely in the short term.

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Sunday, 27 May 2018

Market Brief for 28th May 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant





Markets on the back of improved corporate results and since being over sold after having fallen for past two weeks staged a throwback rally, and finally manage to end the week on flat note, still leaving behind uncertainties. Although recovered a bit in the short term due to rise in few sectors, the under tone is still mildly bearish, rising oil prices, political uncertainty, inflation, weak rupee are all area of concern and needs to be resolved soon or else the markets would start bleeding. There are some tailwinds (positives) too, it needs to be seen if it outweighs the headwinds (negatives), the tailwinds are the further improvement in corporate profitability on the back of improved demand, expected policy reforms, credit off-take, improved export and better realization thereof due to weak rupee. It can be safely concluded that the markets will be volatile, jittery and lackluster for some time.

TECHNICAL – The pullback or the throwback rally managed to end the week on flat note, Nifty is now poised against the key resistance of 10700 and 10800 and this would be tough for the markets to cross. On the lower side support exists between 10400 to 10600 levels, hence the broad range for the Nifty is 10400 to 10800 and the near term range is 10500 to 10700, until some significant news would oscillate between these levels, however close below 10400 will be very vulnerable position for the markets and deep correction would be witnessed and the upside remains capped at 11200 even if Nifty closes above 10800.

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Sunday, 29 April 2018

Market Brief for 30th April 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant





Once again amid mixed news flows, and expected positive earnings, the market last week remain in the range and manage to do well on Friday to end the week finally on positive note. The range bound trade is expected to continue in the market with the bias of upside until the crucial forthcoming Assembly Election of Karnataka, Since the earning factor is behind us reporting moderate growth one should closely watch for the upcoming monsoon, Govt. Reform policies, Inflation and the outcome of Assembly Elections of Karnataka, all this factors are very critical for market and the behaviour of the market will depend on what unfolds. The positive outcome of above fundamentals can surely see sharp rally in the markets upwards and any measure negative news like the loss of elections by BJP Govt, poor monsoon and slow down in reforms could slide the market down to even test initially 10400 but perhaps even 10000 and lower
Technical – The Nifty have broken out from an important level of 10600, Going forward if its manages to stay above this level then it will move higher, However since the market have gone up at a slower momentum, hence if it fails to cross the resistance of 10900 and goes below 10600 it will witness a secondary selloff and this correction would take the market to 10400 or even to 10000. The broader range for the market is 10400 and 10900 and extreme short term range is between 10800 and 10500

Investor should remain stock specifically optimistic on the market, but should refrain from investing in Stocks with higher Debts and poor governance. One is further suggested to be atleast 10% to 20% in cash.

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Friday, 30 March 2018

Market Weekly Report by Imtiaz Merchant



Market Brief – AS SUGGESTED MARKETS TRADED NERVEOUSLY IN A RANGE, GOOD AND THE BAD NEWS POURED IN AND KEPT THE MARKETS ON THE EDGES, AND WITH SHORTER WEEEKEND, THE MARKETS MANAGED TO END THE WEEK ON POSITIVE NOTE, THOUGH THE DAY AND THE MONTH CLOSED LOWER.THUS CONFIRMING A NEAR TERM RANGE BOUND TRADE TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE, GOING FORWARD THE MONSOON FORCAST, 4TH QUATER RESULTS , ECONOMIC POLICY REFORMS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS CUES  AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY ARE THE FACTORS CRITICAL TO MARKET,  HENCE ONE NEEDS TO SEE THE PROGRESS IN THEM CLOSELY.  UNLESS THIS IMPROVES MARKETS WILL AT BEST REMAIN IN A RANGE OR DRIFT DOWN ON ITS OWN WEIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THE LONG-TERM GROWTH IS INTACT.

Technical MARKETS ARE IN A CRTICAL RANGE BETWEEN 10000 AND 10450 AT BEST ON THE HIGHER SIDE, TRADE AND A CLOSE BELOW 10000 THE NIFTY WOULD TEST 9800 AND THEN 9700 FROM WHERE, A SHARP BOUNCE IS EXPECTED. THE VOLITILITY HOWEVER SHALL CONTINUE FOR QUITE SOME TIME PERHAPS THE BETTER PART OF THE YEAR.
ON THE HIGHER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE RESITENCES THAT WILL DISALLOW THE MARKETS TO PROGRESS IN THE NEAR TERM UNLEES THE FUNDAMENTAL IMPROVES. 10250 TO 10450 IS A TOUGH RESISTANCE OR A SUPPLY AREA. THE TESTIMONY OF THIS IS THAT MOST OF THE TRADED STOCKS ARE IN A SHORT TERM TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND, HENCE IT IS VERY DIFFICUKT FR THE MARKETS TO TAKE OUT RESISTANCE, WE CAN CONVINEIENTLY CONCLUDE THAT THE MARKETS ARE IN A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND.

INVESTORS SHOULD EXIT FROM WEAK STOCKS IN RALLY AND HOLD ON TO BULLISH STOCKS PATIENTLY, MOREOVER A CASH LEVEL OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT SHOULD BE MANTAINED, UNLESS THE TREND GETS MORE VIVID.


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Sunday, 25 March 2018

Sensex, Nifty turn weak and volatile on global trade war fears





The markets last week open lower and on the back of negative news flows both domestically and internationally triggered downside and finally ended the week on Friday on negative note, down almost 2 percent for the week. More downside in Indian equity market is not ruled out since the oil price firming up, some political uncertainty on fore and a trade war, a protection trade policy announced by US against China is expected to lead markets of more downside, although the domestic news flows in the US were good with one of the lowest unemployment rate and rise in interest rate thus giving hope for more demand , could lead to a recovery in Global markets but now needs to be seen how it unfolds, forthcoming March quarterly result will be looked upon closely and would further act as a trigger for the markets to take a directional course. Investor’s at this juncture should be wise enough to be at least 15 to 20 percent in cash to be deployed after stability emerges in the market.

Technical– Technically the markets look weak and sceptic, with poor internals. In the near-term markets are likely to see 9800 and followed by 9700 in the near term. The valuation will get attractive and buying will see a range bound trade between 9700 and 10300, the paramount resistance is placed at 10700 and a close beyond that markets will get bottomed out, however a close below 9600 the market will see swift downside for the Nifty to test 9100 to 9200. On the higher side a close above 10700 will see new high.


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