Saturday, 6 July 2019

Market Update for 8th July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant



The event budget failed to enthuse the market, as a result market fell sharply by almost 1.25% in terms of index, but the fall outside the index was catastrophic and stock fell by 2 – 8%. The internals of the markets were extremely poor, and all this happened with higher volumes. The budget failed in policy regarding growth. Government going forward looking to borrow big time from overseas and this according to us is not a good sign, however some long term rationalisation majors were taken that could prove good in the long term, the very rich now will be taxed higher and the middle class by virtue of exemption limit of 5 lakh will get some relief. More thrust was given on encouraging of electric vehicles and lot of incentives was given in manufacturing the same. Higher excise duty on petroleum products and rising custom duty on gold will be look upon negatively. Although markets failed badly on Friday but still remained within a range between 11600 and 12000. It has to be seen how the market will behave on Monday and Tuesday and further course of action will be decided thereon.    

Technical– Technically markets in terms of Nifty looks vulnerable to more fall, trade in close below 11725 will bring down the market to 11625. As long as markets are above 11600 there is still a hope of bulls to stage a comeback, however close 11600 would see a extended fall or protracted corrective action and market could test perhaps 11100 – 11000. Since the market is crucially poised reversal cannot be totally ruled out, if the experts after looking to the blue prints of Union Budget and World markets cues  feels that budget may boost the economy that in terms of levels market may test 12000 initially and a close above this levels it could test 12400 – 12800 levels.


Friday, 28 June 2019

Market Update for 1st July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant



AMID VOLATILE MOVES MARKETS ENDED THE DAY ON WEAK NOTE, HOWEVER, THE WEEK ENDED ON POSITIVE NOTE, BUT THE MONTH ENDED ON NEGATIVE NOTE, THIS DEMOSTRATES THE KIND OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKETS. HENCE VOLATILITY IS PERSISTENT. THE NEXT MONTH IS VERY CRITICAL FOR THE MARKETS, THE ‘MAKE OR MAR’ MONTH, LOT OF EVENT AND NEWS FLOWS LIKE THE OUTCOME FROM THE ONGOING G20 MEET, FORTHCOMING UNION BUDGET ON 5 JULY, MONSOON SPREAD AND THE QUARTERLY CORPORATE RESULT WILL ALL DETERMINE THE MARKET TREND GOING FORWARD. IN EXTREME SHORT TERM THE NIFTY REPRESENTING MARKETS WILL BE IN TIGHT RANGE OF 11700 AND 11900. NEVERTHELESS STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES WILL CONTINUE PARTICULARLY ONCE THE BUDGET IS ANNOUNCED. INVESTORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND VERY STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC, THIS IS A TOUGH MARKET.

Technical–TECHNICALLY THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS WEAK AND NOW VER CLOSE TO ITS SHORT TERM SUPPORT OF 11700, A CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL MORE CORRECTIVE ACTION WILL WITNESS 11600 AND PERHAPS SUB 11500 LEVELS. HOWEVER, IF 11700 IS HELD THEN AT BEST MARKET WILL REMAIN IN A RANGE, AND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS MARKETS WILL TAKE ITS OWN COURSE, ALTHOUGH IN EXTREME SHORT TERM MARKETS APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND VULNERABLE, ONLY A CLOSE ABOVE 12100 WILL SEE A FRESH UPMOVE AND TE NIFTY WILL TEST 12600 TO 13000 LEVELS. IN CONCLUSION THE SHORT AND THE MEDIUM TERM TREND FOR THE MARKETS IS UNCERTAIN, NONETHELESS, THE LONG TERM TREND IS UP AND INTACT.



Saturday, 22 June 2019

Markets remain range bound - Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant



Markets last week traded lower in the midst of geo – political concern in Iran and no clarity on US and China trade barriers and Budget worries, hence the market closed lower for the week by almost 0.5%. There was across the board selling in all the sectors and it was a pathetic close on Friday. It appears until budget on July 5, market would remain in a broader range between 11400 to 12000, unless there is an improvement in the global issues and forth coming budget we would have to see whether markets surge higher, however if budget prove to be lacklustre and there are no major policy decision on the economy, markets would see a sharp decline. Investors are once again suggested to remain at least 20-30% in cash to be deployed post budget.

Technical–Technically markets are crucially poised within a range. If a break out above 12000 happens, market will witness a sharp rally towards 12600 – 12800 levels and initially if markets break down 10600 and closes below this level, it would test 10400. Below this there would be catastrophe and market could see sub 11000 levels. In the best case scenario, it appears, until budget the market would remain in a range. Short term range is between 10600 – 10900 and the Intermediate (Medium Term) or the Broader range would be 10400 – 12000.  

Saturday, 16 March 2019

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 18th March 2019




Markets are expecting Modi govt. to win the general elections and upward trend in global market helps market to rally about 11050 and 11200 and now, poised for higher levels. Looking at the market scenario it appears that this is a pre election rally in anticipation of strong government at the centre. It needs to be seen how the market closes under financial year ending 31st March 2019, next quarter is an election period for the market and if the existing government comes back to power then we can see the boost in the rally and market would in that case test 12500 to 13000 in the Nifty. However with so many parties, regional parties are in the fray and if uncertainty about the government remains, it would be deeply negative for the markets. One needs to watch out for election result and take major position after that.      

Technical The markets finally took a breakout above 11070 and continued its upward journey, market is likely to face stiff resistance at 11800, a close above this level could get us to level of 12500 to 13000, nevertheless in the best case scenario market may remain range bound between 11150 to 11770. Further breakout above 11770 will confirm market entering 12000 plus levels. Despite market being at its lifetime high, there are stock specific moments. If this may continue then market would remain in broad range. Long term investors can buy quality stocks with the view of 2 to 3 years.   
      
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Monday, 4 March 2019

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 06th March 2019


Markets seem to be rightly priced at the moment since some bad or good news is unable to breakout or breakdown the markets and perhaps the market is anticipating some major news flow. Nevertheless the market ended the week and the day higher by half a per cent within the range.
The war like situation between India and Pakistan if escalates then certainly the nifty would go down below 1000 to make a panic bottom, however a positive news flows may be victory of present Govt. though the odds have come down but nevertheless it be a major trigger for the market. It further appears that stock specific move should continue amongst the stocks that are well governed, consistent in profit and having low debt. This is a good portfolio restructure time since good stocks available at decent price, long term investors should buy these kind of stocks and patiently hold on to them.


Technical Technically markets are in a range bound situation, nifty is trading within a specified range perhaps awaiting some news flows. In extremely near term the support exist at 10800 and then perhaps at 10640 below that a corrective action may see sub ten thousand levels. A close above 11050 would initially see 11200 and then perhaps 12000 plus levels should be on card. The sideways movement suggest that range bound markets will continue for some more day before breakout or a decisive breakdown. Investors are suggested to be a good portion in cash to be deployed if the markets breakout, or on deep correction and panic bottom.

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