Saturday, 19 January 2019

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 21st January 2019



Markets on the back of improved quarterly result by few large cap companies like Reliance, Infosys, Wipro, Hind Unilever etc. and some policy announcement by the Govt. on agriculture, infra-structure and DIGITIZATION, and with reduced inflation and better economic outlook the markets ended the week on higher note, up over 1 per cent, apart from these companies some more Mid and Small cap companies gave improved result but the buoyancy in the market will come once the election results are announced that is three to four months away, further with improved global markets it appears that the year 2019 will be a better year for Investment. The sectors look poised to grow in sectors like Consumer goods, Healthcare, Information Technology and Infrastructure.
Investors should be stocks specifically and cautiously optimistic on the markets and buy only those stocks that are giving consistently good earnings and conversely ignore stocks with poor earnings.


Technical Technically markets looks poised against the major breakout at 11200 minor breakout at 11050, if the markets is successful in clearing the deck of this two major huddle, then certainly it will poised to test the all-time  high of around 11800, if closes above this level then certainly test much higher levels. However if it fails to close above major huddle of 11200 and close below 10780 it will once again go for corrective action. Hence the initial range for the Nifty is between 10780 and 11050 and wider range of 10700 and 11200.

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Saturday, 5 January 2019

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 07th January 2019

On the back of weak and volatile global markets may it be equity or commodity ended the week on negative note, though finish the day on Friday on positive note with improved volumes, the European and US markets too ended the day on Friday on a robust close in anticipation that world economic growth including from emerging markets particularly. Indian scenario is concerned the volatility is likely to continue due to general election few months away the outcome for the same would determine the course of market, plus some populous measures taken by the government will be detrimental for the markets. Quarterly results will also play key role. We expect the year 2019 would be volatile and range bound unless good news on economy and government stability will act as a trigger for the markets. Markets will be very stocks specific, it will not be the cats and dogs’ market, companies doing well will be rewarded and companies reporting bad results will at same time punished. I call this year 2019 to be a more rational year for the equity markets and stocks will discover the fair values.


Technical- Technically the markets on expected lines are range bound and will continue to remain so until it breaks out 11050 levels on the Nifty with improved volumes, conversely it the markets breakdown the lower levels say 10500 on close basis then a prolonged correction is not ruled out. And until then market will oscillates initially between 10600 and 10950, hence we can say as the days go by the markets will sooner than later find the either breakout or breakdown though chances of breakout seemingly looks higher.

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Saturday, 29 December 2018

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 31st December 2018


ON THE BACKDROP OF WEAK AND VOLATILE GLOBAL CUES AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS THE MARKET, WORLD OVER, FELL DRASTICALLY AND RECOVERED A BIT INCLUDING THE INDIAN MARKETS AND ENDED THE DAY AND WEEK MARGINALLY HIGHER THOUGH WITH LOWER VOLUMES ONCE AGAIN, AND POOR MARKET BREADTH (INTERNALS). WORLD WITNESSED A RADICAL FALL IN OIL AND COMMODITY PRICES HENCE CONFIRMING SLOW DOWN OF THE WORLD ECONOMY. THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN RANGE WITH SIDEWAYS BIAS, ANY FURTHER BAD NEWS ON ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL OR POLITICAL FRONT WILL WITNESS A SHARP AND SWIFT FALL AND THE OUTCOME WILL BE A FATAL AND PROLONGED SELL OFF. HOWEVER, SELECTED STOCK SPECIFIC MOVE SHALL CONTINUE. THE COMPANIES WITH CONSISTENT PROFIT, GOOD GOVERNANCE AND LOW DEBT ARE LIKELY TO DO WELL IN EQUITY MARKET.

FURTHER GOVT. POLICY ON REFORM AND FORTH COMING GENERAL ELECTION WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE. ACCORDING TO MANY ANALYSTS THE YEAR OF 2019 WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND STOCK SPECIFIC. THIS IS STILL AN INVESTOR’S MARKETS AND GOOD COMPANY STOCKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT FROM A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE, SECTORS LIKELY TO DO WELL ARE CONSUMER GOODS, INDUSTRIALS, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS, FINANCIALS, HEALTHCARE AND CONSTRUCTION.


Technical-Technically THE MARKET IS POISED FOR RANGE BOUND TRADE WITH 10550 ULTIMATE SUPPORT AND 11050 ON CLOSES BASIS RESISTANCE, a close above 11050 the Nifty would initially test 11200 and then, markets can  witness a secular rally towards 12000 plus levels, however close below 10700 the Nifty would test 11550 , if this happens then a prolong correction is not ruled out and markets will enter the bear market , although according to us we have maintained that this is a corrective action and not a bear markets, however one need to look out for 10500 on the lower side and 11050 on higher side very closely to determine the trend going forward.

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Friday, 14 December 2018

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 17th December 2018







Markets being oversold staged a throwback rally last week on the back of stable govt for state assembly and no hung parliament in any of the five states turned positive for the markets and bear covering rally did its job and ended the week and the day on positive note. Though it was a minor set back for the present central government but looking at the fact that it is still six months away will give respite to government, the under current for the markets look bullish being held despite global markets showing weakness, hence it appears that 10400 to 10600 offers good support for the markets fundamentally. It further needs to be seen how the corporate results are unfolded which is less than a month away. It further needs to be seen how the global and commodity market behave and that shall have baring on Indian markets.

Investors should be cautiously and stocks specifically optimistic on the markets and are still advised to be a portion in cash for any contingency or eventuality.

Technical- Technically after the throwback rally last week, market once again is in a range bound trade, the near-term range is between 10550 and 10950, a close on either side will determine further trend. In the extreme near term the range is between 10650 and 10950. The intermediate (medium term) trend is although down and shall turn up if the Nifty closes above 11050 and stays there. In event of close above 11050 markets will be poised for new historic high, though that looks a bit difficult now, however a close below 10550 the nifty would initially test 10350 and then perhaps 10000 is likely to get tested. 

Sunday, 12 August 2018

Market Brief for 13th August 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant


Market Brief MARKETS TRADED IN A NARROW RANGE DURING LAST WEEK BEFORE ENDING IT MARGINALLY HIGHER, THE MARKETS BREADTH (INTERNALS) WERE TOO WEAK AND THE STOCKS IN FAVOUR OF ADVANCE TO DECLINE WERE NEGATIVE TOO. WITH GEO-POLITICAL CONCERNS IN IRAN AND AS THE STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTION COMING CLOSER THE MARKETS HAS A HABBIT OF GETTING JITTERY, AND SINCE THE COPRPORATES RESULTS ARE BEHIND US WERE A MIX BAG, WITH SOME COMPANIES REPORTING EXCELLENT RESULTS AND SOME REELING UNDER PRESSURE, AND NOW THE GLOBAL MARKETS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURFACE , ALTHOUGH THE WORLD ECONOMIIES AND NOT DOING SO BADLY BUT THE PRICE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRICE DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE VALUE.IT FURTHER APPEARS THAT MARKETS UNTIL ASSEMBLY AND GENEARAL ELECTION WILL BE EARSTWHILE CHOPPY AND VOLATILE. INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP A PORTION OF CASH IN HAND TO BE DEPLOYED ONCE THERE IS STABILITY AND POSITIVE NEWS FLOW STARTS POURING IN. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT UNTIL SOME POSITIVE SURPRISES MARKETS WILL LOOK FRAIL AND VULNERABLE FOR CORRECTION
TechnicalMARKETS AFTER 6 WEEKS OF RISE SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME MOMENTUM AND IN THE NEAR-TERM IT MAY CORRECT AND CONSOLIDATE UNLESS TECNICALLY CLOSES ABOVE 11500, ON THE LOWER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE SUPPORT RIGHT FROM  10900 TO 11400, MARKETS MAY HAVE WLD SWING IN BOTH THE DIREDCTION UNTILL IT GETS CLEAR THAT MARKETS WILL CONFIRM CORRECTION BY CLOSING BELOW 11360, HENCE IN THE SHORT TERM 11360 ON CLOSE REMANINS VITAL SUPPORT AND BELOW THIS CORRECTION COULD GET SHARPER AND NIFTY WOULD TEST 11240. THE LONG AND THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND WILL STILL BE INTACT.
INVESTORS SHOULD BE STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE MARKETS AT THE SAME TIME UMDERPERFROMING STOCK SHOULD FIND A WAY FOR EXIT. SECTOR THAT HOLD PROMISE ARE FMCG, SELECTED STOCKS FROM OIL & GAS & INSUSTRILES.


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