Saturday 16 March 2019

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 18th March 2019




Markets are expecting Modi govt. to win the general elections and upward trend in global market helps market to rally about 11050 and 11200 and now, poised for higher levels. Looking at the market scenario it appears that this is a pre election rally in anticipation of strong government at the centre. It needs to be seen how the market closes under financial year ending 31st March 2019, next quarter is an election period for the market and if the existing government comes back to power then we can see the boost in the rally and market would in that case test 12500 to 13000 in the Nifty. However with so many parties, regional parties are in the fray and if uncertainty about the government remains, it would be deeply negative for the markets. One needs to watch out for election result and take major position after that.      

Technical The markets finally took a breakout above 11070 and continued its upward journey, market is likely to face stiff resistance at 11800, a close above this level could get us to level of 12500 to 13000, nevertheless in the best case scenario market may remain range bound between 11150 to 11770. Further breakout above 11770 will confirm market entering 12000 plus levels. Despite market being at its lifetime high, there are stock specific moments. If this may continue then market would remain in broad range. Long term investors can buy quality stocks with the view of 2 to 3 years.   
      
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Monday 4 March 2019

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 06th March 2019


Markets seem to be rightly priced at the moment since some bad or good news is unable to breakout or breakdown the markets and perhaps the market is anticipating some major news flow. Nevertheless the market ended the week and the day higher by half a per cent within the range.
The war like situation between India and Pakistan if escalates then certainly the nifty would go down below 1000 to make a panic bottom, however a positive news flows may be victory of present Govt. though the odds have come down but nevertheless it be a major trigger for the market. It further appears that stock specific move should continue amongst the stocks that are well governed, consistent in profit and having low debt. This is a good portfolio restructure time since good stocks available at decent price, long term investors should buy these kind of stocks and patiently hold on to them.


Technical Technically markets are in a range bound situation, nifty is trading within a specified range perhaps awaiting some news flows. In extremely near term the support exist at 10800 and then perhaps at 10640 below that a corrective action may see sub ten thousand levels. A close above 11050 would initially see 11200 and then perhaps 12000 plus levels should be on card. The sideways movement suggest that range bound markets will continue for some more day before breakout or a decisive breakdown. Investors are suggested to be a good portion in cash to be deployed if the markets breakout, or on deep correction and panic bottom.

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