Market Update by Imtiaz Merchant for 29th July 2019

Markets quite as expected continued the downside journey to test 11200 from where it recovered a bit to close the day and the week off the lows at 11285. The fall in the markets was primarily due to slowdown in the economy, lack of policy initiative by the Govt. June quarter Corporate results being muted baring few companies, unabated rise in unemployment and uncertainty about agro output since many parts in India is suffering from unprecedented floods and some parts receiving scanty rains, global cues not been encouraging,  all this lead to major correction in the markets and it appears that on the back of uncertainty in economic fundamentals more downside in the market is not ruled out. These are tough times in the markets and that investor who wants to invest for long term should initiate some buying traders and short term investors may better stay away.

Technical–Technically market look weak and vulnerable to more falls, although a small throwback rally is not ruled out since the market is oversold in the near term, on the higher side there are multiple resistances that may keep the market under check between 11400 to 11700 at best, however a close below 11200 will see the nifty sliding down once again and may test 11100 to 10600 levels. In the initial range for the market is between 11200 and 11500 whereas the broader range is between 11000 and 11700.

Market Update for 22nd July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant

Market gave a catastrophic close on Friday and broke its short term trend down, all this happened due to multiple reasons, poor corporate earnings, global cues were negative followed by no major policy changes by the government on economic front and Budget failed to enthuse the market. Going forward it appears that market will go down further to test initially 11100 on the Nifty and subsequently it can go down as low as 10600, this can be reversal point because of valuation and stocks will be available at cheap prices, however in the short run any rise in the market will be used by the investor to sell stocks, hence a prolonged corrective action is quite likely, it appears that market will have a U shape recovery and a protracted range bound trade is not ruled out. Investors should exercise caution and remain at least 20% to 30% in cash until market stabilizes, nevertheless investor should exit from weak and under performing stock in the rally and try to remain in quality stock, that is having least leverage, good governance and consistent growth.      

Technical– Technically market look poised for more downside the first important support for the market is placed at 11100, but the asset test support lies at 10600 and as long as market is above this level there is good hope for the bull to come back. On the higher side 11720 is first important resistance followed by 11800, market may come out form the woods only if it manages to close above 11800 and stays there. The short term range for the market is 11300 – 11700 and the Inter mediate range is between 11100 and 11800. Movement in either direction beyond this range will determine the further trend.

Market Update for 1st July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant

AMID VOLATILE MOVES MARKETS ENDED THE DAY ON WEAK NOTE, HOWEVER, THE WEEK ENDED ON POSITIVE NOTE, BUT THE MONTH ENDED ON NEGATIVE NOTE, THIS DEMOSTRATES THE KIND OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKETS. HENCE VOLATILITY IS PERSISTENT. THE NEXT MONTH IS VERY CRITICAL FOR THE MARKETS, THE ‘MAKE OR MAR’ MONTH, LOT OF EVENT AND NEWS FLOWS LIKE THE OUTCOME FROM THE ONGOING G20 MEET, FORTHCOMING UNION BUDGET ON 5 JULY, MONSOON SPREAD AND THE QUARTERLY CORPORATE RESULT WILL ALL DETERMINE THE MARKET TREND GOING FORWARD. IN EXTREME SHORT TERM THE NIFTY REPRESENTING MARKETS WILL BE IN TIGHT RANGE OF 11700 AND 11900. NEVERTHELESS STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES WILL CONTINUE PARTICULARLY ONCE THE BUDGET IS ANNOUNCED. INVESTORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND VERY STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC, THIS IS A TOUGH MARKET.

Technical–TECHNICALLY THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS WEAK AND NOW VER CLOSE TO ITS SHORT TERM SUPPORT OF 11700, A CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL MORE CORRECTIVE ACTION WILL WITNESS 11600 AND PERHAPS SUB 11500 LEVELS. HOWEVER, IF 11700 IS HELD THEN AT BEST MARKET WILL REMAIN IN A RANGE, AND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS MARKETS WILL TAKE ITS OWN COURSE, ALTHOUGH IN EXTREME SHORT TERM MARKETS APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND VULNERABLE, ONLY A CLOSE ABOVE 12100 WILL SEE A FRESH UPMOVE AND TE NIFTY WILL TEST 12600 TO 13000 LEVELS. IN CONCLUSION THE SHORT AND THE MEDIUM TERM TREND FOR THE MARKETS IS UNCERTAIN, NONETHELESS, THE LONG TERM TREND IS UP AND INTACT.

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 18th March 2019

Markets are expecting Modi govt. to win the general elections and upward trend in global market helps market to rally about 11050 and 11200 and now, poised for higher levels. Looking at the market scenario it appears that this is a pre election rally in anticipation of strong government at the centre. It needs to be seen how the market closes under financial year ending 31^st March 2019, next quarter is an election period for the market and if the existing government comes back to power then we can see the boost in the rally and market would in that case test 12500 to 13000 in the Nifty. However with so many parties, regional parties are in the fray and if uncertainty about the government remains, it would be deeply negative for the markets. One needs to watch out for election result and take major position after that.      

Technical– The markets finally took a breakout above 11070 and continued its upward journey, market is likely to face stiff resistance at 11800, a close above this level could get us to level of 12500 to 13000, nevertheless in the best case scenario market may remain range bound between 11150 to 11770. Further breakout above 11770 will confirm market entering 12000 plus levels. Despite market being at its lifetime high, there are stock specific moments. If this may continue then market would remain in broad range. Long term investors can buy quality stocks with the view of 2 to 3 years.   

      

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Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 07th January 2019

On the back of weak and volatile global markets may it be equity or commodity ended the week on negative note, though finish the day on Friday on positive note with improved volumes, the European and US markets too ended the day on Friday on a robust close in anticipation that world economic growth including from emerging markets particularly. Indian scenario is concerned the volatility is likely to continue due to general election few months away the outcome for the same would determine the course of market, plus some populous measures taken by the government will be detrimental for the markets. Quarterly results will also play key role. We expect the year 2019 would be volatile and range bound unless good news on economy and government stability will act as a trigger for the markets. Markets will be very stocks specific, it will not be the cats and dogs’ market, companies doing well will be rewarded and companies reporting bad results will at same time punished. I call this year 2019 to be a more rational year for the equity markets and stocks will discover the fair values.

Technical- Technically the markets on expected lines are range bound and will continue to remain so until it breaks out 11050 levels on the Nifty with improved volumes, conversely it the markets breakdown the lower levels say 10500 on close basis then a prolonged correction is not ruled out. And until then market will oscillates initially between 10600 and 10950, hence we can say as the days go by the markets will sooner than later find the either breakout or breakdown though chances of breakout seemingly looks higher.

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PRAGMATIC WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT. LTD.

Head Office: 102, 1st Floor, Topaz Society, Dr. Nair Road, Agripada, Mumbai Central (E), Mumbai 400011

Tel: +91-022-23001290 Whatsapp:+91 9022178683

E-mail: contact@pragmaticwealth.net