Friday 28 June 2019

Market Update for 1st July 2019 by Imtiaz Merchant



AMID VOLATILE MOVES MARKETS ENDED THE DAY ON WEAK NOTE, HOWEVER, THE WEEK ENDED ON POSITIVE NOTE, BUT THE MONTH ENDED ON NEGATIVE NOTE, THIS DEMOSTRATES THE KIND OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKETS. HENCE VOLATILITY IS PERSISTENT. THE NEXT MONTH IS VERY CRITICAL FOR THE MARKETS, THE ‘MAKE OR MAR’ MONTH, LOT OF EVENT AND NEWS FLOWS LIKE THE OUTCOME FROM THE ONGOING G20 MEET, FORTHCOMING UNION BUDGET ON 5 JULY, MONSOON SPREAD AND THE QUARTERLY CORPORATE RESULT WILL ALL DETERMINE THE MARKET TREND GOING FORWARD. IN EXTREME SHORT TERM THE NIFTY REPRESENTING MARKETS WILL BE IN TIGHT RANGE OF 11700 AND 11900. NEVERTHELESS STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES WILL CONTINUE PARTICULARLY ONCE THE BUDGET IS ANNOUNCED. INVESTORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND VERY STOCK SPECIFICALLY OPTIMISTIC, THIS IS A TOUGH MARKET.

Technical–TECHNICALLY THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS WEAK AND NOW VER CLOSE TO ITS SHORT TERM SUPPORT OF 11700, A CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL MORE CORRECTIVE ACTION WILL WITNESS 11600 AND PERHAPS SUB 11500 LEVELS. HOWEVER, IF 11700 IS HELD THEN AT BEST MARKET WILL REMAIN IN A RANGE, AND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS MARKETS WILL TAKE ITS OWN COURSE, ALTHOUGH IN EXTREME SHORT TERM MARKETS APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND VULNERABLE, ONLY A CLOSE ABOVE 12100 WILL SEE A FRESH UPMOVE AND TE NIFTY WILL TEST 12600 TO 13000 LEVELS. IN CONCLUSION THE SHORT AND THE MEDIUM TERM TREND FOR THE MARKETS IS UNCERTAIN, NONETHELESS, THE LONG TERM TREND IS UP AND INTACT.



Saturday 22 June 2019

Markets remain range bound - Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant



Markets last week traded lower in the midst of geo – political concern in Iran and no clarity on US and China trade barriers and Budget worries, hence the market closed lower for the week by almost 0.5%. There was across the board selling in all the sectors and it was a pathetic close on Friday. It appears until budget on July 5, market would remain in a broader range between 11400 to 12000, unless there is an improvement in the global issues and forth coming budget we would have to see whether markets surge higher, however if budget prove to be lacklustre and there are no major policy decision on the economy, markets would see a sharp decline. Investors are once again suggested to remain at least 20-30% in cash to be deployed post budget.

Technical–Technically markets are crucially poised within a range. If a break out above 12000 happens, market will witness a sharp rally towards 12600 – 12800 levels and initially if markets break down 10600 and closes below this level, it would test 10400. Below this there would be catastrophe and market could see sub 11000 levels. In the best case scenario, it appears, until budget the market would remain in a range. Short term range is between 10600 – 10900 and the Intermediate (Medium Term) or the Broader range would be 10400 – 12000.