Pragmatic Wealth Management Pvt. Ltd.: stock markets

Showing posts with label stock markets. Show all posts

Saturday, 16 March 2019

Stock Market Brief by Imtiaz Merchant for 18th March 2019

Markets are expecting Modi govt. to win the general elections and upward trend in global market helps market to rally about 11050 and 11200 and now, poised for higher levels. Looking at the market scenario it appears that this is a pre election rally in anticipation of strong government at the centre. It needs to be seen how the market closes under financial year ending 31^st March 2019, next quarter is an election period for the market and if the existing government comes back to power then we can see the boost in the rally and market would in that case test 12500 to 13000 in the Nifty. However with so many parties, regional parties are in the fray and if uncertainty about the government remains, it would be deeply negative for the markets. One needs to watch out for election result and take major position after that.

Technical– The markets finally took a breakout above 11070 and continued its upward journey, market is likely to face stiff resistance at 11800, a close above this level could get us to level of 12500 to 13000, nevertheless in the best case scenario market may remain range bound between 11150 to 11770. Further breakout above 11770 will confirm market entering 12000 plus levels. Despite market being at its lifetime high, there are stock specific moments. If this may continue then market would remain in broad range. Long term investors can buy quality stocks with the view of 2 to 3 years.

To Subscribe to our newsletters, Visit Our Website

PRAGMATIC WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT. LTD.

Head Office: 102, 1st Floor, Topaz Society, Dr. Nair Road, Agripada, Mumbai Central (E), Mumbai 400011

Tel: +91-022-23001290 Whatsapp:+91 9022178683

E-mail: contact@pragmaticwealth.net

Saturday, 23 January 2016

Market Brief – 25th Jan 2016.

The markets continued its downward journey and it got abetted on Thursday and Friday on the back of some stability in crude prices and Global markets, and it ended the week on flat note. The fundamentals look weak and jittery with World Bank downgrading the global GDP growth to 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017, but there is some silver lining for Indian economy where the estimates were raised for 2016 at 7.3%, and 7.6% in 2017, well, it needs to be seen how it unfolds and the fundamentals play out. Geo-political fears, weak aggregate demand and awaited policy reforms by Indian Government will all keep the Indian markets under check. At best, one can expect a range bound trade until we see further deterioration or improvement in the underlying fundamentals. The Union Budget next month, too, will play a crucial role in giving the directions to the markets.

Technically, as mentioned in the last newsletter, 7200 on the Nifty is a very critical support and the Nifty for the moment has held this level, and gave a small bounce back on Friday. The supply of equities on higher levels, will keep the markets under check, 7500 to 7650 is the first important resistance area. One needs to see if market manages to close above 7650. If it does close above 7650, we may see some more upside to the market. However, failing to surpass these resistance levels and the undertone being bearish, hence, a close below 7200 would certainly witness a sharp sell-off and perhaps 6800 would be tested. The near term range for the market would be 7200 to 7650, and only a close above or below either sides would determine the trend going forward.

This is a very fragile market and usually occurs every 3-4 years, and according to our studies, this is a sharp correction within the Grand Bull Run. Though painful, but gives tremendous opportunities to long term investors. One need to be cautiously and stock specifically optimistic on the markets, and remain invested or invest in quality companies having good governance and growth. We once again reiterate that this is a good portfolio restructuring time.

Invest the Halal Way!!!

Click Here to go through our Weekly Newsletter

PRAGMATIC WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT. LTD.

Head Office:

102, 1st Floor, Topaz Society,

Dr. Nair Road, Agripada, Mumbai Central (E), Mumbai 400011

Tel: +91-8108178683

E-mail: contact@pragmaticwealth.net

Monday, 18 January 2016

Market Brief – 18th January 2016

It was a pathetic week for the markets wherein the market internals became extremely weak and there was carnage in mid-cap and small cap companies. Although, the major indices, Nifty and Sensex, closed two percent lower for the week, the mid cap and the small cap closed almost ten percent lower. There was total despondency witnessed in the market, and total lack of confidence and fear, all this happened in the backdrop of global market meltdown, China in particular, falling crude oil prices (signifying the Global recession) and no positive news on Indian economic growth scenario. In fact there was a poor showing where IIP is concerned. The only solace market got was good corporate earnings reported by Infosys, BPCL and Reliance in anticipation of improved earnings, showed courage and leadership.

Going forward, unless there is a remarkable improvement in the macros and the micros, the markets will certainly be vulnerable to more sell-off. Where technical of the market goes, it looks extremely weak and down side seems very evitable. Initially it appears that Nifty would test an important level of 7220, that’s about 50 percent retrenchment from the lows of 2014 to the highs of 2015. If markets fail to hold this crucial level, then another leg of selling would take to sub 7000 levels. In the short term, the upside remains capped at 7700. Extreme volatile moves will be the rule of the game, in the near term.

One has to keep an eye on the earning season, companies showing improved sequential growth in terms of top line & bottom line will show a remarkable improvement in the stock prices and at the same time poor results will crush the stock prices further down. The year 2016, very apparently appears to be a volatile year and it would be a stock picker’s market. One needs to exercise caution and take courage to exit from under performing stocks and switch to better performing companies. This is a good portfolio restructuring time.