Market Brief for 28th May 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Markets on the back of improved corporate results and since being over sold after having fallen for past two weeks staged a throwback rally, and finally manage to end the week on flat note, still leaving behind uncertainties. Although recovered a bit in the short term due to rise in few sectors, the under tone is still mildly bearish, rising oil prices, political uncertainty, inflation, weak rupee are all area of concern and needs to be resolved soon or else the markets would start bleeding. There are some tailwinds (positives) too, it needs to be seen if it outweighs the headwinds (negatives), the tailwinds are the further improvement in corporate profitability on the back of improved demand, expected policy reforms, credit off-take, improved export and better realization thereof due to weak rupee. It can be safely concluded that the markets will be volatile, jittery and lackluster for some time.

TECHNICAL – The pullback or the throwback rally managed to end the week on flat note, Nifty is now poised against the key resistance of 10700 and 10800 and this would be tough for the markets to cross. On the lower side support exists between 10400 to 10600 levels, hence the broad range for the Nifty is 10400 to 10800 and the near term range is 10500 to 10700, until some significant news would oscillate between these levels, however close below 10400 will be very vulnerable position for the markets and deep correction would be witnessed and the upside remains capped at 11200 even if Nifty closes above 10800.

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Market Brief for 30th April 2018 by Imtiaz Merchant

Once again amid mixed news flows, and expected positive earnings, the market last week remain in the range and manage to do well on Friday to end the week finally on positive note. The range bound trade is expected to continue in the market with the bias of upside until the crucial forthcoming Assembly Election of Karnataka, Since the earning factor is behind us reporting moderate growth one should closely watch for the upcoming monsoon, Govt. Reform policies, Inflation and the outcome of Assembly Elections of Karnataka, all this factors are very critical for market and the behaviour of the market will depend on what unfolds. The positive outcome of above fundamentals can surely see sharp rally in the markets upwards and any measure negative news like the loss of elections by BJP Govt, poor monsoon and slow down in reforms could slide the market down to even test initially 10400 but perhaps even 10000 and lower

Technical – The Nifty have broken out from an important level of 10600, Going forward if its manages to stay above this level then it will move higher, However since the market have gone up at a slower momentum, hence if it fails to cross the resistance of 10900 and goes below 10600 it will witness a secondary selloff and this correction would take the market to 10400 or even to 10000. The broader range for the market is 10400 and 10900 and extreme short term range is between 10800 and 10500

Investor should remain stock specifically optimistic on the market, but should refrain from investing in Stocks with higher Debts and poor governance. One is further suggested to be atleast 10% to 20% in cash.

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Market Weekly Report by Imtiaz Merchant

Market Brief – AS SUGGESTED MARKETS TRADED NERVEOUSLY IN A RANGE, GOOD AND THE BAD NEWS POURED IN AND KEPT THE MARKETS ON THE EDGES, AND WITH SHORTER WEEEKEND, THE MARKETS MANAGED TO END THE WEEK ON POSITIVE NOTE, THOUGH THE DAY AND THE MONTH CLOSED LOWER.THUS CONFIRMING A NEAR TERM RANGE BOUND TRADE TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE, GOING FORWARD THE MONSOON FORCAST, 4^TH QUATER RESULTS , ECONOMIC POLICY REFORMS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS CUES  AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY ARE THE FACTORS CRITICAL TO MARKET,  HENCE ONE NEEDS TO SEE THE PROGRESS IN THEM CLOSELY.  UNLESS THIS IMPROVES MARKETS WILL AT BEST REMAIN IN A RANGE OR DRIFT DOWN ON ITS OWN WEIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THE LONG-TERM GROWTH IS INTACT.

Technical – MARKETS ARE IN A CRTICAL RANGE BETWEEN 10000 AND 10450 AT BEST ON THE HIGHER SIDE, TRADE AND A CLOSE BELOW 10000 THE NIFTY WOULD TEST 9800 AND THEN 9700 FROM WHERE, A SHARP BOUNCE IS EXPECTED. THE VOLITILITY HOWEVER SHALL CONTINUE FOR QUITE SOME TIME PERHAPS THE BETTER PART OF THE YEAR.

ON THE HIGHER SIDE THERE ARE MULTIPLE RESITENCES THAT WILL DISALLOW THE MARKETS TO PROGRESS IN THE NEAR TERM UNLEES THE FUNDAMENTAL IMPROVES. 10250 TO 10450 IS A TOUGH RESISTANCE OR A SUPPLY AREA. THE TESTIMONY OF THIS IS THAT MOST OF THE TRADED STOCKS ARE IN A SHORT TERM TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND, HENCE IT IS VERY DIFFICUKT FR THE MARKETS TO TAKE OUT RESISTANCE, WE CAN CONVINEIENTLY CONCLUDE THAT THE MARKETS ARE IN A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND.

INVESTORS SHOULD EXIT FROM WEAK STOCKS IN RALLY AND HOLD ON TO BULLISH STOCKS PATIENTLY, MOREOVER A CASH LEVEL OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT SHOULD BE MANTAINED, UNLESS THE TREND GETS MORE VIVID.

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Sensex, Nifty turn weak and volatile on global trade war fears

The markets last week open lower and on the back of negative news flows both domestically and internationally triggered downside and finally ended the week on Friday on negative note, down almost 2 percent for the week. More downside in Indian equity market is not ruled out since the oil price firming up, some political uncertainty on fore and a trade war, a protection trade policy announced by US against China is expected to lead markets of more downside, although the domestic news flows in the US were good with one of the lowest unemployment rate and rise in interest rate thus giving hope for more demand , could lead to a recovery in Global markets but now needs to be seen how it unfolds, forthcoming March quarterly result will be looked upon closely and would further act as a trigger for the markets to take a directional course. Investor’s at this juncture should be wise enough to be at least 15 to 20 percent in cash to be deployed after stability emerges in the market.

Technical– Technically the markets look weak and sceptic, with poor internals. In the near-term markets are likely to see 9800 and followed by 9700 in the near term. The valuation will get attractive and buying will see a range bound trade between 9700 and 10300, the paramount resistance is placed at 10700 and a close beyond that markets will get bottomed out, however a close below 9600 the market will see swift downside for the Nifty to test 9100 to 9200. On the higher side a close above 10700 will see new high.

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Head Office:
102, 1st Floor, Topaz Society,
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Whatsapp:+91 9022178683
E-mail: contact@pragmaticwealth.net

Bloodbath in stock markets

Market Brief – With mix news flows the markets remain volatile during the week and ended the week lower, although the Global markets did well but Indian markets were jittery due to some political upheaval with BJP losing all the Lok Sabha by polls and TDP Govt. Of Andhra Pradesh withdrew there support with NDA further breed uncertainty. Going forward Quarterly results of March, Monsoon forecast, Outcome of political uncertainty, Crude & Commodity prices and Global markets cues will all determine the market trend. Since uncertainty and volatility has gone up Investors are suggested to remain partly in cash say about at least 15% to 20%, to be deployed once the stability is back in the market, Nevertheless it appears that market during this year 2018 will continue to remain volatile, Assembly and General Election and implementation of reformed process will be instrumental for the markets. A cautious and stock specific approach should be the order of the day.    

Technical– Technically market looks weak and vulnerable for more fall, a trade and a close below 10000 would swiftly extend the correction initially to 9800 and then 9600. On the higher side 10500 – 10650 is a tough resistance area and unless the Nifty closes above 10650 it would remains under selling pressure, the Short term range for the market is 10140 (the low registered on Friday 16th March) and 10400 on the higher side and the broader range would be 10000 on the lower side and 10400 on higher side. Although the market look weak and vulnerable in Short and Medium Term, but the long Term Trend is still up. 

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